Rafael Behr argues in The Guardian that while Russian meddling probably did not sway the 2016 Brexit referendum result, the Kremlin’s underlying motive to destabilise the European Union continues to hold strategic importance.
Boris Johnson, then a leading figure in the Vote Leave campaign, once attributed Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to the EU’s perceived failures in foreign and defence policy. This framing, Behr notes, reflected a broader narrative that sought to portray the EU as culpable for external conflicts, aligning with Russian propaganda.
During the 2024 general election campaign, Nigel Farage revived similar claims regarding the Ukraine war, prompting criticism from former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who labelled the assertions as “ahistorical drivel” and “Kremlin propaganda.” Behr highlights Johnson’s tendency to shift positions based on political expediency, noting that his stance evolved after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Andy Burnham, the current Prime Minister, recently suggested that Russian interference in the Brexit referendum is plausible given documented patterns of Kremlin activity in global elections. These tactics include bot-driven disinformation campaigns, financial support for extremist groups, and efforts to erode public trust in democratic institutions.
Burnham’s comments drew sharp criticism from Brexit supporters, including Nigel Farage, who dismissed the claims as a “Russia hoax” reminiscent of narratives used by Donald Trump. Downing Street later clarified that Burnham did not intend to question the legitimacy of the referendum outcome, acknowledging the difficulty of measuring the actual impact of foreign interference.
Behr contends that while the Brexit vote may have been influenced by Russian efforts, the core reasons for leaving the EU—particularly anti-immigration sentiment—were homegrown. However, he argues that the geopolitical implications of Brexit are more pronounced today, especially in light of ongoing tensions with Russia and shifting transatlantic dynamics.
The article concludes by asserting that the strategic isolation resulting from Brexit aligns with what Britain’s adversaries sought in 2016. Behr warns that maintaining this trajectory risks further weakening the UK’s position on the global stage.
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