DETROIT — Cox Automotive has trimmed its outlook for used vehicle prices, now expecting the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to finish the year up just 0.2% instead of the 2% gain it had previously projected.
The downgrade, issued Wednesday, would mark a third consecutive year of broadly flat pricing, following the sharp increases and subsequent declines seen during the pandemic.
Between July and September the index fell 1.95%. In September alone it dropped 0.6% against the same month a year earlier — the first time since March 2025 that the monthly reading was not higher year over year.
“As we enter Q4, interest rates are rising, consumer sentiment is falling, and yet a wealth effect from strong and sustained financial-asset growth is providing some offsetting cushion. Many metrics we watch are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb said in a release.
The Manheim index has historically averaged a year-over-year gain of roughly 2.3%. On a nonadjusted basis, wholesale used vehicle prices declined 1.2% year over year in September and 1.3% from August, with depreciation accelerating over the third quarter, according to Cox.
The index is closely watched as a gauge of used vehicle pricing because it tracks vehicles sold at Manheim’s U.S. wholesale auctions. Retail prices paid by consumers traditionally follow wholesale movements.
Cox said growth in electric vehicle sales and off-lease volumes is reshaping the used market, with EVs and smaller, fuel-efficient models gaining value during the quarter. Large trucks and SUVs, by contrast, performed poorly.
“The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting,” Robb said.
The divergence between smaller, fuel-efficient cars and larger vehicles unfolded as the national average gasoline price hit $4.33 per gallon in September — 50 cents above the prior September record of $3.83 set in 2023, according to AAA.
Retail demand for used vehicles is relatively healthy, Cox said, but the pricing shifts appear to signal that dealers have hit a ceiling on what they can charge consumers.
Cox put the average listed price of a used vehicle at $27,239 as of August, compared with an average of more than $50,000 for new vehicles.
The majority of U.S. consumers buy used vehicles because they are more affordable than new models.
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