Hyundai Motor is projected to sell more vehicles than Ford Motor in a quarter for the first time in the two companies’ history, according to a forecast Cox Automotive published Thursday.
Cox estimates the South Korean manufacturer will report 511,421 units sold from July through September, a 6.5% rise compared with the same period a year earlier. Ford, by the same projection, will post 504,172 new vehicles — a decline of 7.1% year over year.
Such an outcome would place Hyundai third among U.S. automakers by volume, trailing only General Motors and Toyota Motor.
The forecast lands amid vehicle demand that has held up better than many expected in 2026. Cox lifted its full-year projection by about 2%, to 16.1 million units.
“The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient,” Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb said Thursday on a media call, per CNBC. “New and used sales are both down year over year, but they’re not down really that much.”
Ford pushed back on the projection, saying it still leads Hyundai on a year-to-date basis through August. The Detroit automaker also said the forecast “does highlight the rapid growth of vehicles imported from Korea – by companies like Hyundai, Kia and GM,” noting GM has sharply increased U.S. sales of vehicles built at South Korean plants this decade.
“Currently, due to tariffs, currency, labor costs and supply chains, it is very advantageous to build in Korea versus building in the U.S. — which Ford does more than any automaker,” Ford said in an emailed statement.
Hyundai, together with its luxury Genesis marque and corporate sibling Kia, has expanded its U.S. footprint substantially this year. Ford has contended with constrained output of its key F-Series pickups after two supplier fires last year disrupted both production and sales.
Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC last month that passing Ford in U.S. volume is not a target, but said any such result would stem from the company’s product focus and execution. “We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality,” Muñoz said, pointing to Hyundai’s standing as third globally by sales. “And we end up achieving unbelievable goals.”
Cox analysts attributed part of the pressure on Ford and GM to their limited hybrid offerings, a segment growing quickly in the U.S. as pump prices stay elevated.
“If you don’t have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap,” Cox executive analyst Erin Keating said Thursday on the same call.
GM’s only hybrid is a version of the Corvette, while Ford’s hybrid range spans the Maverick and F-150 pickups.
Toyota, the hybrid segment leader, is also closing on GM’s position atop the U.S. sales table. Cox said last quarter that Toyota could unseat GM for the full year. GM is forecast to report a 5.2% third-quarter decline to 671,706 vehicles, while Toyota is projected to gain 2.2% to 642,707 units. Through the year to date, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 units.
Should Toyota finish ahead, it would be only the second time it has beaten GM in annual U.S. sales. The first came in 2021, when supply chain disruption curbed vehicle production.
Cox experts noted fuel prices — at a AAA national average of $4.48 per gallon — are weighing on sales of large trucks and SUVs, a category the Detroit automakers depend on heavily.
GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis have renewed their emphasis on V-8 engines in larger pickups and SUVs following the Trump administration’s deregulation of emissions and fuel economy standards.
“I think that’s probably one of the callouts for the domestics is that they have made some interesting decisions around product,” Keating said.
Cox expects Stellantis to report a 1.3% decline in third-quarter U.S. sales, with full-year volume up 2.8% as the company carries out a group-wide turnaround plan.
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